Development cards, are they really worth it?


While it might be a means of victory, development cards, in my opinion, are not worth the 3 resources. Sure, played with some finesse, they can put you in an advantageous position. However statistcally, I personally would steer clear from buying development cards. I typically purchase development cards only when I have too many resources on hand and want to keep my hand of cards to under 7.

From a statistical standpoint here's the distribution of cards assuming a fresh deck.

  • Knight: 48%
  • Monopoly: 12%
  • Road Building: 12%
  • Year of Plenty: 12%
  • Victory Point: 16%

Knights


Typically if you're one of the first few to start purchasing development cards, you're pretty much a shoe in for the largest army. However if you purchase development cards late, and someone else has already had a 2 knight lead on you. It's usualy rather difficult to catch up. Any resources spent on knights would inevitabily not result in any victory points.

Monopoly


A well played monopoly card can be well worth the 3 resources spent on it but the chances of that happening are actually rather slim. A surefire way of getting making alot of enemies would be to trade off alot of one resource and then playing the monopoly card to gain them back, this is a true test of your friend's sportsmanship.

Road Building


Road building might be argued as a reasonable trade since you're spending 3 resources in return for 4 (from the 2 roads which might have been built) Perhaps if you're deficient in lumber and brick, this might be a viable option, not optimal but viable.

Year of Plenty


This is just a bonus, the low occurance isn't something which should be banked upon and while this is a game of change, relying too heavily on this isn't advisable.

Victory point


While this is a desired card, it's actually not a good means of gaining victory points. On average, you would need to spend 18 resources to gain one victory point (3 per development card, 6 cards at 16% chance each)

Obviously it would make more sense to channel those resources to a settlement or victory.

The 3 exceptions where I would actually recommend purchasing a development card are.

  1. When you have too many cards on hand and want to keep to the 7 card limit
  2. When you're trying to win by ore/wheat
  3. When alot of cards have been bought and played (as knights)